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A 35-year lake ice phenology record reveals climate change impacts on High Arctic
Tao, Jialu
Tao, Jialu
Abstract
Lake ice phenology is the seasonal patterns of the freezing and thawing of ice on lakes. This process serves as a key climate indicator that reflects the change in energy balance related to surface air temperature, wind, and radiation. These patterns are not just climate signals but also critical to the health of freshwater ecosystems. Understanding ice phenological changes in the Arctic is particularly critical under the context of the Arctic amplification. Here, I applied remote sensing technology to explore the change in lake ice phenology of Midsommer Lake (84 km2) in northern Greenland from 1987 to 2023. By examining Landsat satellite imageries using Google Earth Engine, I quantified water and ice coverage over time. Limited by the polar night effect, my analysis specifically focused on the timing of the first ice break-up date and the melt duration (the period from when the ice first breaks up to when the lake is entirely ice-free). My findings reveal a trend toward earlier ice break-up and shorter melting periods. Upper Midsommer Lake experienced a change of 0.27 days/year, and the lower basin changed 0.23 days/year. Over 36 years, the duration of melting decreased by 17 days for the upper lake and 21 days for the lower lake. Moreover, annual average surface temperatures in the area have increased by more than 1.5°C during this period. Continuous future warming with every 1 °C in mean June-July temperature will lead to the ~15.7 days earlier break-up date for Upper Midsommer Lake, and ~9.9 days earlier for Lower Midsommer Lake. These changes align with broader Arctic trends, highlighting the impacts of global climate change. However, details of my lake ice phenology data show that trends are also influenced by a complex interplay of both climatic and non-climatic factors such as lake morphology.
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2024-05-01
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Geology