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Linking watershed loading and basin-level carrying capacity models to evaluate the effects of land use on primary production and shellfish aquaculture
Luckenbach, Mark Wang, Harry V.
Luckenbach, Mark
Wang, Harry V.
Abstract
Aquaculture production of hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria, in the lower Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, U.S.A., has increased dramatically within the last decade. In recent years concern has been raised that some growing areas may be approaching the exploitation carrying capacity for clam production. Preliminary calculations indicate that large-scale intensive clam aquaculture may be controlling nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in this system. To date, carrying capacity models have not been applied to this system, but we are in the process of building models for that purpose. Moreover changing land use in the watersheds surrounding the clam-producing areas raises the need for an improved understanding of how these changes will affect water quality, primary production and shellfish production. We describe an ongoing project linking a watershed-based loading model with a physical transport-based water quality model to simulate primary production and predict carrying capacity for clam aquaculture. Extensive calibration and verification of the water quality model has demonstrated its utility for simulating primary production and water quality parameters in the Chesapeake Bay. In our present efforts, watershed loading models have been developed and tested for predicting both surface and groundwater inputs into the coastal waters. We are currently coupling the water quality and watershed loading models, and developing clam physiology and population-level sub-models. Also, under development is a sediment deposition/resuspension sub-model. Each of these components will be linked to estimate exploitation carrying capacity for clam production in this system. Our goal is to use the coupled models to predict how varying land use scenarios impact water quality, primary production and shellfish carrying capacity of coastal waters.
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2004-03-01
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Physical Sciences Peer-Reviewed Articles
Eastern Shore Laboratory (ESL), Mercenaria mercenaria, aquaculture, carrying capacity, water quality model
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Virginia Institute of Marine Science