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Vulnerability of shallow tidal water habitats in Virginia to climate change

Bilkovic, Donna Marie
; 
Herschner, Carl H.
; 
Rudnicky, Tamia
; 
Nunez, Karinna
; 
Schatt, Daniel E.
; 
Kileen, Sharon
; 
Berman, Marcia
Abstract
The principal objective of this study was to develop a characterization of current shallow-water habitat components in Virginia tidal waters and predict climate driven changes to these habitats. To project broad-scale climate change effects on the abundance and distribution of coastal habitats, an inundation model based on anticipated relative sea-level rise, temperature and salinity projections, and coastal development were integrated into a GIS modeling framework. Using this framework, simple models were constructed that forecast the distribution of key coastal habitat parameters within the next 50 to 100 years including: shallow-water areas, tidal wetlands, submerged aquatic vegetation and estuarine beaches. The purpose is to inform management and planning efforts by identifying areas at significant risk for changes to habitat components, and areas with significant potential to support critical habitat components in the future. This will enable managers to make proactive decisions that can mitigate impacts and preserve opportunities for sustained habitat services as the estuarine system evolves. From a practical perspective, understanding potential futures can inform targeting of limited management resources to areas at greatest risk and/or areas with the greatest probability for successful outcomes.
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Date
2009-01-01
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Applied Research Reports
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0-Vulnerability_ExecutiveSummary.pdf
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1-Habitat_Loss_Summary.pdf
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3-Annual_Shoreline_Hardening_Map.pdf
Adobe PDF, 649.56 KB
4-Riparian_Land_Developed_Map.pdf
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5-Shoreline_Hardened_Map.pdf
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Keywords
CCRM Research and Reports Research and Technical Reports, Climatic changes > Environmental aspects > Virginia > Tidewater (Region) Sea level > Virginia > Tidewater (Region) > Forecasting. Coast changes > Virginia
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Virginia Institute of Marine Science
DOI
https://doi.org/10.21220/V53022
URI
https://scholarworks.wm.edu/handle/internal/14936
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