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Re-Envisioning Shoreline Change Rates in Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay: Year 1
Wilcox, Christine Forrest, David Kowal, Julianna Ziegler, Gabrielle Hardaway, C. Scott
Wilcox, Christine
Forrest, David
Kowal, Julianna
Ziegler, Gabrielle
Hardaway, C. Scott
Abstract
Shoreline change in Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay is a dynamic and accelerating process influenced by relative sea-level rise, storms, wave climate, geomorphic setting, and human intervention. For more than two decades, the Shoreline Studies Program (SSP) at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) has maintained a comprehensive shoreline evolution database (1937–2021) and calculated shoreline change rates using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). However, the transition from ArcMap to ArcPro and the increasing need to better understand accelerating shoreline change required the development of a new analytical framework. This first year of a three-year project re-envisioned shoreline change rate analysis by developing and implementing a Change-Point Rate (CPR) model using open-source tools (QGIS and Python). Unlike traditional End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) methods, the CPR model applies piecewise regression to identify statistically derived change-point years along individual transects and calculate rates before and after that change. This approach allows for the detection of accelerations, decelerations, and step changes in shoreline position potentially associated with sea-level rise, storm events, or installation of shoreline protection structures. The Year 1 study area included the York River, Piankatank River, and Mobjack Bay shorelines, encompassing eight counties. Statistical analyses were completed for the five York River shoreline counties (Gloucester, James City, King & Queen, New Kent, and York).
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2026-02
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Virginia Institute of Marine Science
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https://doi.org/10.21220/NYYZ-JY90