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Demographic Noise and Fragmentation in Stochastic Extinction

Curtis, Cameron
Abstract
A discrete-time stochastic map is used to model metapopula-ions under demographic and extinction-colonization stochasticity. Drawing on prior work examining the route to extinction in large metapopulations, this work considers smaller metapopulations experiencing high stochasticity. The model is analyzed using Markov Chain analysis and direct simulation to estimate expected extinction times of varied metapopulations. It is shown that fragmentation significantly lessens expected extinction times. Increased dispersal between local populations can limit negative effects of fragmentation but, regardless of dispersal strength or metapopulation structure, cannot fully negate it. The model presented can provide some insight into ongoing ecological debates surrounding ways to limit extinction risk for populations that are already or are at high risk of fragmenting.
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2023-05-01
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Undergraduate Honors Theses
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https://scholarworks.wm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2992&context=honorstheses&unstamped=1
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Shaw, Leah
Hurtado-Lange, Daniela
Lipcius, Romuald
Day, Sarah
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Mathematics
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https://scholarworks.wm.edu/handle/internal/11428
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