Data from: Rising temperatures, molting phenology and epizootic shell disease in the American lobster

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Phenological mismatch, maladaptive changes in phenology resulting from altered timing of environmental cues, is an increasing concern in many ecological systems, yet its effects on disease are poorly characterized. American lobster (Homarus americanus) is declining at its southern geographic limit. Rising seawater temperatures are associated with seasonal outbreaks of epizootic shell disease (ESD), which peaks in prevalence in the fall. We used a 34-year mark-recapture dataset to investigate relationships between temperature, molting phenology, and ESD in Long Island Sound, where temperatures are increasing at 0.4 °C per decade. Our analyses support the hypothesis that phenological mismatch is linked to the epidemiology of ESD. Warming spring temperatures are correlated with earlier spring molting. Lobsters lose diseased cuticle by molting, and early molting increases the intermolt period in the summer, when disease prevalence is increasing to a fall peak. In juvenile and adult male lobsters, September ESD prevalence was correlated with early molting, while October ESD prevalence was correlated with summer seawater temperature. This suggests that temperature-induced molting phenology affects the timing of the onset of ESD, but, later in the summer, this signal is swamped by the stronger signal of summer temperatures, which we hypothesize are associated with an increased rate of new infections. October ESD prevalence was ~80% in years with hot summers, and ~30% in years with cooler summers. Yearly survival of diseased lobsters is <50% that of healthy lobsters. Thus, population impacts of ESD are expected to increase with increasing seawater temperatures.,Seawater temperatures East LIS 1976-2015See README for metadataMillstone_lobster 1982-2015.csvCatch per unit effort dataSee README file for metadataLobster_CPUE.csvTagged lobster dataSee README file for metadatalobster_all_tagged.txtREADMEDescriptions of data and code associated with this publication.A1 Millstone temperature trends 1976-2015Exploratory analysis of seawater temperature trendsA2 Average molting, prevalence and CPUE 1999-2015Exploratory analyses of lobster dataA3 H1 Spring molting phenology is altered by temperatureTest of hypothesis 1A4 H2 Spring molting reduces risk of ESDTest of hypothesis 2A5 H3 ESD induces moltingTest of hypothesis 3A6 H4 ESD Prevalence in Sept and Oct Juveniles and Adult MalesTest of hypothesis 4,



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