Title

Data from: Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf

Document Type

Data

DOI

10.5061/dryad.1m2vn52

Publication Date

1-1-2019

Description

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.,Pacific spp rcp26This zipped file contains all the projections for Pacific species for RCP 2.6. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.Pacific spp rcp85This zipped file contains all the projections for Pacific species for RCP 8.5. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp rcp26_A-LThis zipped file contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 2.6, which have genera names beginning with the letters 'A' through 'L'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp rcp26_M-ZThis zipped file contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 2.6, which have genera names beginning with the letters 'M' through 'Z'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp rcp85_A-LThis zipped file contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 8.5, which have genera names beginning with the letters 'A' through 'L'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.Atlantic spp rcp85_M-ZThis zipped file contains all the projections for Atlantic species for RCP 8.5, which have genera names beginning with the letters 'M' through 'Z'. Each file contains 21st century projection data for a single species and one of two RCPs (representative concentration pathway). The files are stored as ‘.RData’ files and each contains a single data frame to be used with R computing software. Each row of data consists of projected catch-per-unit-effort within a specific latitude-longitude referenced grid cell, for one of five time periods (2007-2020, 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Please refer to the ‘READ ME’ file that is included with the zip file for more details.,

Publisher

DRYAD

Source Link

http://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.1m2vn52

Version

1

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