Virginia Institute of Marine Science
NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS
Bred vectors characterize the nonlinear instability of dynamical systems and so far have been computed only for systems with known evolution equations. In this article, bred vectors are computed from a single time series data using time-delay embedding, with a new technique, nearest-neighbor breeding. Since the dynamical properties of the standard and nearest-neighbor breeding are shown to be similar, this provides a new and novel way to model and predict sudden transitions in systems represented by time series data alone.
MAGNETOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; PREDICTION; FILTERS; STORMS
This work is supported by JPL grant 1485739, CICS grants NOAA-CISC-EKEK_12 and CICS-EKEK_14, NSF/IIP grant 1338634, and ONR grant N00014-10-1-0557. This paper is in part Contribution No. 3465 of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary.
Lynch, E., Kaufman, D., Sharma, A. S., Kalnay, E., and Ide, K.: Brief Communication: Breeding vectors in the phase space reconstructed from time series data, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 137-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-137-2016, 2016.