A Data Repository for “Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions”

Document Type

Data

Department/Program

Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Publication Date

2023

Spatial Information

36.7 to 39.7°N, -77.5 to -75.5°W; Chesapeake Bay, U.S.A.

Data Access

Select button Link to Full Text for dataset, NetCDF

Abstract

Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-21st century simulated by the delta approach (+19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+9% and +11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.

Description

Data files contain downscaled atmospheric inputs, interpolated ocean boundary inputs, watershed model inputs, and estuarine model outputs for all experiments. Atmospheric input files contain 3-hourly estimates of all relevant atmospheric variables applied to ChesROMS-ECB. Watershed model data include daily discharge and nitrogen loadings (both nitrate and organic nitrogen) at the river inputs to ChesROMS-ECB for all experiments. Estuarine model data include daily outputs of both physical and biogeochemical variables throughout the entirety of the ChesROMS-ECB domain.

Experiment Name || File Name/Format || Brief Description

Continuous:

  • frc_ches_MACA_yyyy_yyyy.nc || Atmospheric inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into 5–year increments.
  • Ches_OBC_yyyy.nc || Open boundary ChesROMS-ECB model inputs, broken up into single year increments.
  • DLEM_LongRun_RivFrc.nc || NetCDF file containing daily watershed model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB at 10 river inputs.
  • LongRun_yyyy_yyyy/roms_avg_xxxx.nc || Directory of NetCDF files containing ChesROMSECB outputs. Individual directories are broken up into 5–year increments (yyyy_yyyy in folder name). Daily averaged model outputs are broken up into approximately monthly intervals, and are labeled sequentially in each directory (xxxx).

Delta:

  • frc_delta_yyyy_yyyy.nc || Atmospheric inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into 5–year increments.
  • Ches_OBC_Delta_yyyy.nc || Open boundary ChesROMS-ECB model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into single year increments.
  • DLEM_Delta_RivFrc.nc || NetCDF file containing daily watershed model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB at 10 river inputs. Inputs for this experiment are modified for the years 1991-2000.
  • Delta_yyyy_yyyy/roms_avg_xxxx.nc || Directory of NetCDF files containing ChesROMSECB outputs. Individual directories are broken up into 5–year increments (yyyy_yyyy in folder name). Daily averaged model outputs are broken up into approximately monthly intervals, and are


Time Slice:

  • frc_TimeSlice_yyyy_yyyy.nc || Atmospheric inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into 5–year increments.
  • Ches_OBC_TimeSlice_yyyy.nc || Open boundary ChesROMS-ECB model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into single year increments.
  • DLEM_TimeSlice_RivFrc.nc || NetCDF file containing daily watershed model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB at 10 river inputs. Inputs for this experiment are modified for the years 2046-2055.
  • TimeSlice_yyyy_yyyy/roms_avg_xxxx.nc || Directory of NetCDF files containing ChesROMSECB outputs. Individual directories are broken up into 5–year increments (yyyy_yyyy in folder name). Daily averaged model outputs are broken up into approximately monthly intervals, and are labeled sequentially in each directory (xxxx).

Estuary Memory:

  • frc_EMem_yyyy_yyyy.nc || Atmospheric inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into 5–year increments.
  • Ches_OBC_EMem_yyyy.nc || Open boundary ChesROMS-ECB model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB, broken up into single year increments.
  • DLEM_EMem_RivFrc.nc || NetCDF file containing daily watershed model inputs to ChesROMS-ECB at 10 river inputs. Inputs for this experiment are modified for the years 2046-2055.
  • EMem_yyyy_yyyy/roms_avg_xxxx.nc || Directory of NetCDF files containing ChesROMSECB outputs. Individual directories are broken up into 5–year increments (yyyy_yyyy in folder name). Daily averaged model outputs are broken up into approximately monthly intervals, and are labeled sequentially in each directory (xxxx).

DOI

10.25773/AWQB-Z988

Keywords

Chesapeake Bay, Climate Change, Hypoxia, Numerical Modeling

Associated Publications

Hinson, K.E., Friedrichs, M.A.M., Najjar, R.G., Bian, Z., Herrmann, M., St-Laurent, P., & Tian, H. (Submitted to Scientific Reports). Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions.

Funding

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science under award NA16NOS4780207 to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. This work used High-Performance Computing facilities at William & Mary (https://www.wm.edu/offices/it/services/researchcomputing/atwm/index.php), which are supported by NSF, the Commonwealth of Virginia Equipment Trust Fund, and the Office of Naval Research. The funders had no role in the project design, data collection, data analysis, decision to publish, preparation of the manuscript, or preparation of the data repository.

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