https://doi.org/10.25773/e1f4-3d96

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Dataset: Conservation Targeting: Potential Tidal Wetlands 2030 to 2100 in Virginia’s Coastal Zone

Document Type

Data

Department/Program

Virginia Institute of Marine Science

VIMS Department/Program

Center for Coastal Resources Management (CCRM)

Publication Date

2024

Data Access

GeoTIFF format, readable by spatial data viewing software.

Abstract

The habitat most likely to be negatively impacted by climate change in coastal Virginia over the next several decades is tidal marsh. Tidal marsh extent is dictated by the location of the intertidal area, which is rapidly changing as a result of climate change and tidal marshes must also rapidly adapt in order to persist on the landscape. Of the two primary mechanisms for tidal wetland adaptation: accretion and migration, migration is most likely for most marshes in Virginia. Migration occurs as the upland edge of the marsh moves further inland in response to rising sea level. As formerly upland areas become regularly inundated by spring tides, these areas convert to high marsh due to increasing salt content and saturation. If erosion was minimal and accretion was able to keep the low marsh high enough in the tidal envelop to prevent drowning, marshes would increase their overall areal extent through this process, as has happened repeatedly in geologic history whenever sea levels have risen. However, due to the inadequate sediment supply and rapid resulting erosion of low marsh edges, there is a net inland movement of marshes occurring throughout the Bay. In the short term, some areas are likely going to experience a net increase in areal extent due to the very low slope of immediately upland areas. Once the upper extent of the marsh reaches a steeper slope, however, the upland migration rate will slow dramatically, resulting in net loss as drowning and erosion continue at the front edge of the marsh. This process, termed coastal squeeze, will occur regardless of whether the upland slope is untenable due to natural (e.g., berms) or anthropogenic (e.g., coastal defense structures) features. This project mapped the potential areal footprint of tidal wetlands (TW) for each decade from 2030 to 2100 and included 2020 as reference. The mean low water locations are conservative estimates due to the absence of erosion and drowning as dynamic processes through time.

Description

  • WetPotential_2020: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2020. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2030: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2030. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2040: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2040. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2050: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2050. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2060: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2060. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2070: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2070. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2080: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2080. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2090: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2090. This analysis includes all land use categories.
  • WetPotential_2100: Raster file of area between mean sea level and upper limit of tidal marsh elevation for 2100. This analysis includes all land use categories.

Keywords

Marsh migration, tidal marsh migration, shoreline habitat shifts, landuse

Associated Publications

Conservation Targeting: Models and Policy for Climate Resilience of coastal habitat and heritage resources in Virginia’s Coastal Zone: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/reports/2888/

Funding

This project was funded, in part, by the Virginia Coastal Zone Management Program at the Department of Environmental Quality through Grant #NA22NOS4190187 of the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, under the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, or any of its sub-agencies

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