Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming

Authors

Kyle E. Hinson, Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceFollow
Pierre St-Laurent, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceFollow
Fei Da, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceFollow
Raymond G. Najjar

Document Type

Article

Department/Program

Virginia Institute of Marine Science

Publication Date

6-2021

Journal

Journal of the American Water Resources Association

First Page

1

Last Page

20

Abstract

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 +/- 0.02C/year, mean +/- 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 +/- 0.01C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 +/- 0.01C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere.

Supporting model data available at: https://doi.org/10.25773/c774-a366

DOI

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12916

Keywords

Chesapeake Bay; climate change; water temperature; environmental models

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Recommended Citation

Hinson, Kyle E.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A.M.; St-Laurent, Pierre; Da, Fei; and Najjar, Raymond G., Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming (2021). Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12916